Penerapan Metode Prophet untuk Prediksi Jumlah Produksi sebagai Pendukung Perencanaan Produksi Berbasis Web dashboard pada PT Asaputex Jaya Kota Tegal
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69714/s5h8x488Keywords:
Prophet, Forecasting, Production Quantity Prediction, Web DashboardAbstract
Inaccurate production planning can lead to overproduction or underproduction, negatively affecting a company's operational efficiency. This study aims to apply the Prophet method to predict monthly production quantities and to develop a web dashboard as a medium for presenting the prediction results at PT. Asaputex Jaya, Tegal City. This study contributes to the development of decision support systems in the manufacturing sector by integrating Prophet-based predictions into an interactive web dashboard. Prophet was selected for its ability to handle time series data with seasonal patterns and trends. The model was evaluated using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE. The results show that Prophet was successfully implemented with an MAE of 94 units, RMSE of 116 units, and MAPE of 2.01%, which falls into the highly accurate category. Analysis of production patterns from 2021 to 2025 shows that the production peak shifted from May to March, while the lowest point varied between February and June, with the 2026 prediction estimating a peak in March and the lowest point in June. The web dashboard system was successfully developed using React.js, FastAPI, and PostgreSQL, presenting the prediction results in the form of charts, tables, and reports, with all features functioning without errors based on Black Box Testing. This study demonstrates that Prophet is suitable for seasonally patterned production data, and its integration into a web dashboard supports data-driven production planning.
References
W. Nugroho and L. A. Tambunan, “Transformasi Digital dan Dampaknya terhadap Kompetensi Sumber Daya Manusia di Era Industri 5.0,” J. Ilm. Glob. Educ., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 1–12, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.55681/jige.v6i3.4172.
M. V. Syahanifadhel, D. E. Basuki, B. A. Hasna, and A. Azzam, “Analisis Perencanaan Produksi Pada Produk Kemeja Pola Menggunakan Metode Forecasting Dan Master Production Schedule Untuk Penjadwalan Produksi Pada CV . Jodion Unggul Perkasa,” J. Has. Penelit. dan Karya Ilm. Dalam Bid. Tek. Ind., vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 95–104, 2023, doi: https://doi.org/10.24014/jti.v9i1.21890.
F. Masula, M. R. M. Huda, and A. Winarno, “LITERATURE REVIEW : PENERAPAN PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DALAM MENINGKATKAN EFEKTIVITAS DAN EFISIENSI AKTIVITAS PRODUKSI,” J. Ekon. Bisnis dan Manaj., vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 30–43, 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.59024/jise.v2i3.747.
S. Nurhayati and A. Syafiq, “Sistem Prediksi Jumlah Produksi Baju Menggunakan Weighted Moving Average,” J. Manaj. Inform., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 14–24, 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.34010/jamika.v12i1.6680.
M. I. Alfaridzi et al., “Perbandingan model SARIMA dan Prophet dalam memprediksi jumlah kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara ke Indonesia berdasarkan data deret waktu bulanan,” J. Comput. Sci. Inf. Technol. ( CoSciTech ), vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 546–552, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.37859/coscitech.v6i3.9963.
F. M. H. Atamimi, W. Wintanti, and G. Abdillah, “Enhanching Prophet Time Series Forecasting on Sparse Data via Hyperparameter Optimizattion: A Case Study in Retail,” Sink. J. dan Penelit. Tek. Inform., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 1000–1007, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.33395/sinkron.v9i2.14804.
Amirudin, S. A. Prasetyo, and G. Triono, “IMPLEMENTASI HYBRID ARIMA-PROPHET UNTUK PREDIKSI HARGA BERAS NASIONAL,” JIPI (Jurnal Ilm. Penelit. dan Pembelajaran Inform., vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 3837–3850, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.29100/jipi.v10i4.8689.
K. Hidayat, W. Witanti, and E. Ramadhan, “Analisis Tren dan Prediksi Penjualan Restoran Menggunakan Model Time Series Prophet,” METIK J., vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 457–467, 2025, doi: 10.47002/metik.v9i2.1101.
F. Aditya and Safrizal, “Analisa Perbandingan Metode SARIMAX dan Prophet Dalam Prediksi Kebutuhan Beras,” TIN Terap. Inform. Nusant., vol. 6, no. 6, pp. 652–660, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.47065/tin.v6i6.8599.
B. F. Rochman and S. H. Suryawan, “DASHBOARD PRODUKSI, UTILISASI, BAHAN BAKAR PADA PT CIPTA KRIDATAMA MENGGUNAKAN PYTHON DAN STREAMLIT,” J. GEMBIRA (Pengabdian Kpd. Masyarakat), vol. 1, no. 6, pp. 1996–2001, 2023.
A. B. Tsani, F. Mahardika, and D. Santika, “Pembuatan Web dashboard Interaktif untuk Analisis Data Penjualan Vending Machine,” J. Inform. dan Sains Teknol., vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 51–61, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.62951/modem.v3i2.406.
R. C. S. D. Kusuma et al., PENGANTAR MANAJEMEN OPERASIONAL. PENERBIT MEDIA SAINS INDONESIA, 2023.
Alviyanur, “ANALISIS PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI MENGGUNAKAN METODE FORECASTING,” J. Indones. Sos. Teknol., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 426–437, 2022, doi: https://doi.org/10.59141/jist.v3i03.387.
Furizal et al., “Understanding Time Series Forecasting: A Fundamental Study,” Bul. Ilm. Sarj. Tek. Elektro, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 554–571, 2025, doi: 10.12928/biste.v7i3.13318.
S. J. Taylor and B. Letham, “Forecasting at Scale,” pp. 1–25, 2017, doi: https://doi.org/10.7287/peerj.preprints.3190v2.
M. C. Harijanto, A. Pinandito, and N. H. Wardani, “Perbandingan Metode Forecasting Arima, LSTM, Dan Prophet Dalam Prediksi Penjualan Produk,” J. Pengemb. Teknol. Inf. dan Ilmu Komput., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 2548–964, 2026.
Kadir and O. R. Prasetyo, “Peramalan Luas Panen Padi Indonesia Dengan Model ETS (Error, Trend, Seasonal),” J. MSA ( Mat. dan Stat. serta Apl. ), vol. 9, no. 1, p. 7, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.24252/msa.v9i1.19666.
M. R. E. Satria, D. Rosiani, A. D. Candra, and A. Setiyono, “Analisis Forecasting Produksi Gas Menggunakan Algoritma Prophet Dan Arima,” Pros. Semin. Nas. Teknol. Energi dan Miner., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 562–572, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.53026/sntem2025.v5i1.587.
H. T. Albanna and D. Diana, “Forecasting Penjualan Sembako berbasis Model Prophet: Strategi Efisiensi Stok pada pada Ritel Tradisional,” Edumatic J. Pendidik. Inform., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 698–707, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.29408/edumatic.v9i3.32251.
C. D. Lewis, Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods. London: Butterworths Publishing, 1982.
P. Angkasa and M. I. P. Nasution, “Penerapan Business Intelligence dalam Pengambilan Keputusan Bisnis: Studi Pendekatan Praktis untuk UMKM di Indonesia,” J. Penelit. Ilmu-Ilmu Sos., vol. 02, no. 11, pp. 554–558, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15736249.
D. F. Setyadi and A. P. Wibowo, “Sistem Informasi Rental PlayStation Berbasis Client-Server: Evaluasi Penerimaan Pengguna Menggunakan Technology Acceptance Model,” TIN Terap. Inform. Nusant., vol. 6, no. 7, pp. 895–905, 2025, doi: 10.47065/tin.v6i7.8743.
A. Pangestika and L. W. Widianti, “IMPLEMENTASI PENGUJIAN BLACK BOX TESTING MENGGUNAKAN TEKNIK EQUIVALENTS PARTITIONS PADA APLIKASI TAPERA DIGITAL SERVICES,” J. Sist. Inf. Dan Bisnis Cerdas, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 57–62, 2025, doi: https://doi.org/10.33005/sibc.v18i1.432.
T. Desyani, E. Nirmala, A. Lisdiarto, H. Ridwan, R. W. K. Pambudi, and V. Septiani, “Pengujian Black Box pada Aplikasi Penjualan Berbasis Web Menggunakan Metode Equivalence Partitioning,” J. Inform. Univ. Pamulang, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 79–82, 2022, doi: 10.32493/informatika.v7i1.161194.
P. D. Sugiyono, Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif Kualitatif dan R&D. Alfabeta Bandung, 2013.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Jurnal Riset Sistem Informasi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
